Development, interrupted
Prompted somewhat by DatBlog’s foray into economic tales.
As I look back on what I have witnessed as the ‘development’ of Poland, I can’t help thinking it’s all been a bit disjointed. I’m sure, on paper, one could write a fantastic business plan that moved Poland from where it was in say 1990 to 2008 and end up with one hell of a better outcome than has actually transpired.
When I arrived the place was full of, mostly American, entrepreneurs who were here to make a quick buck. Nestling somewhere between cowboy and playboy, these guys were trying out every idea known to man in the hope that the Poles would suddenly have tons of money to spend on whatever it was they were offering. Most of these slowly faded away as it became clear that Poles didn’t have enough money and their business plans were screwed. For many though, the plan paid off in that they personally got richer, helped, no doubt, by Poland’s general confusion and infant control mechanisms, but Poland itself was left with very little improvement of any substance. Some of the larger corporations with bigger balls and bank accounts who started back then, are still here today. I suppose the foreign banks, hotels and French supermarkets are the ones that spring to mind first but there are others. There have been changes of ownership in some cases, but the enterprises can still be seen and used.
There then came a sort of recession, around 2003-2006 and this saw the departure of many more ex-pat types, either due to failed businesses or to be replaced by cheaper Polish management. This was a strange time as EU membership came in the middle of it so it was weird to see a continued depression while everyone was walking around bigging it up about how fantastic things were going to be as from 2nd May 2004! Well, that didn’t happen either.
Entry to the EU was only really noticed as being a positive influence around two years after it happened. From roughly Q3 2005 activity started to grow seriously again and 2006 and 2007 were very positive years for development. However, instead of the cowboys of yesteryear embracing the wild west of an “emerging market”, we were now seeing the massed ranks of Spanish, Irish and British developers with a thirst for residential blood who’s only rationale was (is) “Poland is the next Spain/Ireland”. It remains to be seen whether this is true, but whatever their business plan was, it does seem to have been interrupted yet again by the Poles inability to spend as much as everyone thinks they should be able to. So, in their own way, this latest wave of parasites has also caused problems by over-heating a market that, at best, has justification to be luke-warm. Additionally, expert timing means that this new 2yr old wave of excitement is now being dosed with the fire hoses of sub-prime, SocGen, bank wobblyness and no doubt will lead to yet another slow down.
In the meantime, I don’t see any real improvement in any of the fundamentals; roads, rail, health service, police, government, variety of retail options, variety of entertainment options, tourism, quality of food in most shops…… the list is endless, and I still see far too many Polish people trying to live on stupid incomes. There’s no doubt that the rich are getting richer here, but that’s the same everywhere. The poor appear to be as poor as they were before, that is also not too surprising but what is unusual is the sloth-like creation, or expansion, or a Polish “middle class”. This is vital because those are the people that are going to make all these business ventures make sense. I’m a bit of a fan of the “free market economy” (capitalism, or whatever it’s called) but I really can’t see how a succession of foreigners marching in here with one or other whizzo business idea is going to make much of an impact on the fundamentals. Without a base population with a reasonable amount of disposable income, and a world economy that is not as fragile as it currently seems to be, they are just building on quicksand, are they not?
I’ll feel like things are really improving when I see things like Złote Tarasy being built but INCLUDING a whole new Grand Central Station AND road improvements in the surrounding area. Further than that, when I then see more Poles (not the ones driving the Porsches) actually spending money in there as opposed to wandering around window-shopping or on a school trip with a packed lunch.
I have no idea what happens next but I hope I’ll be here to tell you about it in five years time!
Moreover, writing Poland you mean Warsaw? Doon dee coontrieside, we doon’t evan speek yir Englerican tungs an’ doon’t fallow yir ideeahs.
Lots to discuss. I’ll start with “fantastic things were going to be as from 2nd May 2004″. Said who? To vote for EU was to choose lesser evil: “do you want Poland to be EU’s gross net payer or less gross net payer?” and Cimoszewicz hoped wrong.
darthsida
Sunday, 27 January, 2008 at 2:08 pm
The public money is there for new streets and bridges in Warsaw. It is the beaurocracy an stupid protests (all the old people live in the city center)that slows the developement down.
For example the owners of Zlote Tarasy wanted to
redevelop Emili Plater but they were not allowed to do it.
But i am sure that in 2012 Warsaw will be a whole different city.
If everything goes right in 2008 you will see a forest of cranes in Warsaw. I promise
me
Sunday, 27 January, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Darth, obviously I find it hard to speak for the whole country. So, “said who” was most of the people, primarily Poles, I spoke to in that period about the consequences of joining the EU. Naturally, most of those were in Warsaw.
Me (tricky pseud, that one), I’ve heard this so many times…people wanted to make things better and couldn’t. Bloody annoying, if true. 2012 – lets wait and see.
scatts
Sunday, 27 January, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Well… I think we can say that this is the story of the last 19 years of Poland’s economy told through the personal experience of one Varsovian of foreign background. And that’s fair enough
I wouldn’t agree with most of what you said, but we’d need a long discussion here
Therefore just cutting it short I’ll say I generally don’t agree 
Notes on he margin:
- many cuts were already made in beaureaucracy (hello! central planning!), many others will be made (and have to be made) – although there are many problems as the law has to be consistent – and try to have a consisten law when you’ve changed the whole system, adopted a new constitution and turned everything around.
- wages are lower then in he west. surprised? yet 19 years ago average Polish person made half or less of what they make now. There’s progress. (and this country was going bankrupt in 1989 with 1600% inflation)
- as to the fundamentals like: roads, rail, health service, police, government, variety of retail options, variety of entertainment options, tourism – i see improvement all the time. (except for rail).
You live in Warsaw and don’t see variety of entertainment??? For goodness sake open the January issue of Aktivist and you have pages and pages of entertainment options for each day.
As for food you must be joking when you are talking about improvement!? Western food production systems which are unfortunately being adopted here ultimately mean that food is worse in quality and less healthy. Additives, colourings, preservatives, processed foods, making profit from food, mega-farms? (Did you read “Not on the label” by Felicity Lawrence?)
Pawel
Sunday, 27 January, 2008 at 9:35 pm
Thanks for your side of the story, Pawel.
In many cases you are probably right, improvements are being made, but excruciatingly slowly.
scatts
Sunday, 27 January, 2008 at 10:00 pm
And I agree with scatts. But Warsaw will really improve between late 2008 and 2012.
-stadium
-bridge
-many new skyscrapers and modern buildings
-2 great museums (jewish ,art)
-palac saski
-centrum kopernik
-centrum chopinowskie
-obwodnica ,emilii plater and many other streets.
-plac defilad will be finally rebuilt (the two big ugly shpping barracks will be destroyed)
-the wistula river promenade will be redeveloped…
-the plac bankowy,teatralny and trzech krzyzy will become a place again and not a parking.
-many ugly buildings will be renovated (for example the 3 old towers in the marszalkowska av. will shine soon.
http://www.emporis.com/en/wm/ci/?id=warsaw-poland
me
Sunday, 27 January, 2008 at 10:46 pm
I have no idea what happened to the smileys I was going to add to my previous comment
You are right they’re too slow. But then it’s the people’s fault they elect politicians who don’t have a plan (other then reacting to whatever happens).
Yet competent people don’t rush to politics these days.
And mind you – there are lots of structural problems that haven’t been dealt with, and aren’t easy to deal with. There’s constant battle with insufficent funding in all areas. Count in all the bad decisions and U-turns (like the creation of NFZ instead of Kasa Chorychs)…. Overregulation, complicated and unfriendly tax system, bad administration and courts that need years to proceed with a case… Police that isn’t interested in solving “small” crimes… Very bad people managment, adverts taking public space…
Or maybe you are right, and the state failed us? So when’s the nearest flight to London, and where do I get the ticket?
No, no, no I have to keep going. Someone has to stay fix all of this mess
Pawel
Sunday, 27 January, 2008 at 10:52 pm
The good news is it always could have been worse. We could be like Ukraine, or Russia. Or France
Pawel
Sunday, 27 January, 2008 at 10:54 pm
…and the dworzec centralny will be destroyed right after euro 2012. Now it is too late to do it.
me
Sunday, 27 January, 2008 at 10:58 pm
I’m tourist. Walker. Form childhood I walk thru my beautyyfull country. From sea to mountains. And I see improvements. New hotels in new places. (Some) Castles and historic parks renowned! New walking trails. Brand new cycling paths. More accurate maps and information. GPS!
Fact – some old camping sites now are ruins.. Some old palaces are still waiting for restoration. But this will happen. Soon!
Jacek
Monday, 28 January, 2008 at 9:09 am
The dworzec centralny really annoys me, it is so ugly & dirty. Złote Tarasy is only going to built once and that was the perfect opportunity to sort it out.
Paweł – I edited your comments to get the smilies back. You need to leave a space between the word and the smiley or it does not work.
Me – nice list. Hope they all happen. Prompted me to write another post about parking. Coming up soon!
Jacek – don’t get me wrong. Poland IS a beautiful country and in some ways, I hope the development does not happen. The last thing I want is a Poland that looks like the UK!
scatts
Monday, 28 January, 2008 at 9:31 am
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